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Luck Adjusted Result

Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 1:15 p.m.

In Response To: Luck Adjusted Result (Maik Stiebler)

LAR is far from perfect:

- You can play a match and be more than a 100% favourite.

- You can outplay your opponent bigtime on the ER and still come out as a dog.

- Over the years I've played 2600 DMPs against Gnubg in it's highest settings. According to the average LAR, I should have won 45% of these DMPs but in reality I have won a little more than 48%. I'm not a statistician but it seems to me that after 2600 DMPs the average LAR ought to be closer to my real winning percentage than what is the case.

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