Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 10 August 2009, at 3:24 a.m.

In Response To: Some horrible plays of mine Part 2 of Infinity (Stick)

I thought about this for a minute and figured the error was small either way and when it's small I prefer in general to play on. Looking at my rolls, 11 22 44 55 21 31 32 all excellent rolls. 41 51 61 54 64 65 are decent and even my lame rolls leave indirects where I may be able to cube from the roof. I don't win enough Gs here and often have to cash next turn anyway. In the actual game I rolled a sweet 22 but Steen entered with 11 and I was forced to cash.
The score (after 0 games) is: Jurgen 0, Stick 0 (match to 5 points)
Move number 22: Stick on roll, cube decision?

Jurgen 94

Stick 81
Position ID: 7XYBA0Bu3guAAA Match ID: cAmgAAAAAAAA

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.810 (Money: +0.809)

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, pass +1.000

2. Double, take +1.569 +0.569

3. No double +0.927 -0.073

Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.843 0.133 0.003 - 0.157 0.014 0.000 +0.810 +0.927

Standard error 0.003 0.006 0.000 - 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.010

Player Jurgen owns 2-cube 0.859 0.131 0.003 - 0.141 0.016 0.000 +1.685 +1.569

Standard error 0.003 0.007 0.001 - 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.021 0.022

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

100 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861590103 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]