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When rollouts lie

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Monday, 10 August 2009, at 10:08 p.m.

How bot errors can skew rollout results. I expect I've run loads of rollouts where this sort of thing is happening and haven't spotted it. How do you?

Interestingly the difference between the rollouts seems to be caused by XG taking the recube on what's around a 1.2 pass after 21/13 dance, while GNU passes (they are both using G11). I guess that 21/13 is the best practical move.

is Robin_Hood score: 0 pip: 122

7 point match

pip: 122 score: 0 is Anterico

XGID=aBB-BBB--A---Aac-bbbbBAb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	21/13	eq: +0.856
	Player: Opponent: 62.46% (G:32.76% B:1.77%) 37.54% (G:9.49% B:1.04%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.847...+0.865) Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/16 9/6	eq: +0.702 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 62.81% (G:29.85% B:0.57%) 37.19% (G:10.24% B:0.94%) Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.699...+0.705) Duration: 16 minutes 38 seconds
3.	3 ply	21/16 13/10	eq: +0.666 (-0.190)
	Player: Opponent: 62.77% (G:36.01% B:0.50%) 37.23% (G:10.69% B:0.87%)
4.	1 ply	13/8 9/6	eq: +0.289 (-0.567)
	Player: Opponent: 50.00% (G:23.16% B:0.29%) 50.00% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)
5.	1 ply	13/10 9/4	eq: +0.286 (-0.570)
	Player: Opponent: 50.18% (G:21.93% B:0.28%) 49.82% (G:8.85% B:0.34%)
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	21/16 9/6	+0.7056
			0.6339 0.3345 0.0070 - 0.3661 0.1030 0.0069 +0.5122 +0.7056 0.0004 0.0006 0.0002 - 0.0004 0.0006 0.0003 0.0012 0.0017
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861628715 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	21/13	+0.7042 ( -0.0014)
			0.6136 0.3035 0.0058 - 0.3864 0.0994 0.0052 +0.4424 +0.7042 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 - 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0010 0.0015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861628715 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• When rollouts lie
  Neil Robins -- Monday, 10 August 2009, at 10:08 p.m.
  • When rollouts lie
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 11 August 2009, at 1:47 a.m.