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my favorite bad beats

Posted By: Jake Jacobs
Date: Tuesday, 11 August 2009, at 2:44 a.m.

In Response To: my favorite bad beats *NM* (Jake Jacobs)

I hit Post a bit too early and fired a blank a minute ago!

Anyway, Paul Lamford's math was wrong, though his is an amazing story. He actually starts out with surprisingly large winning chances before rolling the first 66. That puts him in a deep, deep hole, but -10^39 is over 15 orders of magnitude wrong, making his the largest math error in backgammon. :-)

There was a position at the Nordic around ten years ago that is good for a laugh. White has five checkers flying against a 5-point board (Black's 5pt is open), so you show it to people and ask what the odds are of losing a backgammon. White's chances of losing a BG are around 15%, but as you are surmising it was Black who lost the BG.

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