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Luck Adjusted Result

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 11 August 2009, at 10:30 p.m.

In Response To: Luck Adjusted Result (MaX)

BTW, I'm not sure what people mean saying "luck estimation is unbiased" ...

Not sure if you mean that literally, but if you do, I'll try to explain:

From Wikipedia: "In statistics, bias (or bias function) of an estimator is the difference between this estimator's expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated. An estimator or decision rule with zero bias is called unbiased. Otherwise the estimator is said to be biased."

Applied to the LAR: For any two strategies, the expected value of the LAR of a match between them is equal to the expected value of the real result of a match between them (which is in turn the probably most fundamental measure of skill difference of the two strategies).

Similarly, unbiased variance reduction does not change the expected value of the result of a rollout trial of a position

Messages In This Thread

• Luck Adjusted Result
  Jason Lee -- Friday, 7 August 2009, at 11:47 p.m.
  • Luck Adjusted Result
    Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 8 August 2009, at 7:55 a.m.
    • Luck Adjusted Result
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 8 August 2009, at 7:05 p.m.
  • Luck Adjusted Result
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 12:40 a.m.
    • Luck Adjusted Result
      Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 8:26 a.m.
      • Luck Adjusted Result
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 1:15 p.m.
        • Luck Adjusted Result
          Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 5:03 p.m.
          • Luck Adjusted Result
            Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 6:25 p.m.
            • Luck Adjusted Result
              MaX -- Monday, 10 August 2009, at 11:27 a.m.
              • Luck Adjusted Result
                Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 11 August 2009, at 10:30 p.m.
                • Luck Adjusted Result
                  MaX -- Wednesday, 12 August 2009, at 11:45 a.m.
                  • Luck Adjusted Result
                    Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 12 August 2009, at 1:08 p.m.
                    • Luck Adjusted Result
                      MaX -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 8:05 p.m.
        • Luck Adjusted Result
          sonrik -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 9:22 p.m.
          • Luck Adjusted Result
            Jason Lee -- Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 10:40 p.m.
            • Luck Adjusted Result
              sonrik -- Monday, 10 August 2009, at 6:40 a.m.