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Falafel to play 41

Posted By: Keene
Date: Wednesday, 12 August 2009, at 7:29 p.m.

In Response To: Falafel to play 41 (Toppace)

The argument for hitting in these type situations is that your homeboard is stronger, and opponent has to enter twice if you do hit, and you only have to enter once on his inferior board. Your future potential for having the gap on your 3pt leaves far more ways for white to get you back, as you are suddenly more awkward in your bearoff, and a whole bunch of problems can arise from having that gap.

The argument for not hitting is the immediate risk you put yourself in. However, the point here is that the immediate 11/36 that you give your opponent (to enter one checker) is outweighed by the massive upside for when he misses. Also the sequences where he enters with one, hitting, and then you have an immediate 12/36 to hit a 3rd checker and sent it back, whilst only having to bring one man around, as opposed to your opp having to bring another 2 checkers in, and then try and hit you back.

My choice was not to hit. I was willing to pay the future price of awkwardness during my bearoff, rather than offer up the 11/36 immediately.

Keene

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