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MCG vs. Stick Cube #2

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 1:33 p.m.

In Response To: MCG vs. Stick Cube #2 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Does Stick have a take? The takepoint ATS is the normal 25% plus around 56% of tr's g chances less approx 25% of his own and the recube vig is close to zero. Stick has 6 outside crossovers so he probably gets g'd 35% or so of the time if Matt closes his 5-point. That's not likely to happen so Matt probably wins about 15% g's. Stick could also luck into a g so maybe 2-3% g's for Stick. These gammon adjustments raise the takepoint to around 32%. Can Blue win this often? I doubt it. Blue's already down in the race, might not enter for a while, and is subject to being hit back if he does. I think Stick's winning chances are in the 25% range so it looks like a pretty clear pass to me. D/P.

Messages In This Thread

• MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 7:59 a.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 1:33 p.m.
    • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
      John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 1:45 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    Coolrey -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 1:36 p.m.
    • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 5:01 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 2:36 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 2:42 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 9:31 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 11:22 p.m.
    • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 15 August 2009, at 11:31 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Stick Cube #2 ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 16 August 2009, at 8:22 p.m.