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Re: Hand 4

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 1 May 2007, at 3:25 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: Hand 4 (Jason)

I wondered if someone was going to ask about that.

Situation #1: I raise the river, guy behind me obviously folds unless he has a king which we all know he doesn't, so he folds. So two things can happen, I can get 1 call or a fold. [in theory I could get raised, but I know he doesn't have a king either and in that case it doesn't matter, we split or we split, so we should be trying to get the other guy to call]

Possible outcomes are a call or a fold, so making 1/2 of a big bet on average (assuming they happen an equal amount of the time, which of course they shouldn't, but for argument's sake)

Situation #2: What you saw. How can I just call? Because I know the worst hand the guy behind me is on is AX and in all likelyhood he's on 99 TT JJ [because of the preflop action]. Again, if I raise, he folds. He called the turn though. What does this mean? If he's calling that turn nothing has changed, he's calling the river 100% of the time as long as I don't raise. He figures I'm calling him down on an ace or possibly also a pocket pair he's hoping is smaller than his. (no way would I be stupid enough to just call with a king he thinks!) I call, he always calls, only possible outcome = 1 big bet for me.

I think I summed it up ok, the only play in this exact situation is to call.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Honky tonk, bedonk-a-donk
  Stick -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 7:47 a.m.
  • Hand 4
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 4:57 p.m.
    • Re: Hand 4
      Stick -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 6:19 p.m.
      • Re: Re: Hand 4
        Jason -- Tuesday, 1 May 2007, at 2:42 a.m.
        • Re: Hand 4
          Stick -- Tuesday, 1 May 2007, at 3:25 a.m.
  • Hand 5
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 5:06 p.m.
    • Re: Hand 5
      Stick -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 6:17 p.m.