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Cube Action vs. MCG

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 12:35 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Action vs. MCG (adambulldog)

ATS, my OTB estimate is that the leader's takepoint is the normal 25% plus 56% of the trailer's g's less 70% of his own. Recube vig is less than normal since the trailer's 4-cube takpoint is around 20%. How often does Blue win a g? Much more often than in the opening position, that's for sure. The bots win 13% g's from the opening position and that's with them on roll just half the time! A bot on roll in the opening position can probably up this to around 16% gammons. Blue's gammons are therefore way over 16% in this position even though he is a little short on men in the zone. I'll guess 35% g's for Blue and around 8% for White. These gammon adjustments raise the leader's takepoint to around 38.5%. Cube vig is probably worth a couple or so percent ATS so White needs around 36% cubeless chances to take this. It looks real close to me but I think it's technically a close take. D/T.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action vs. MCG
  adambulldog -- Monday, 17 August 2009, at 8:22 p.m.
  • Cube Action vs. MCG
    David -- Monday, 17 August 2009, at 9:13 p.m.
  • Cube Action vs. MCG
    neilkaz -- Monday, 17 August 2009, at 11:09 p.m.
  • Cube Action vs. MCG
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 12:35 a.m.
  • Cube Action vs. MCG RO
    adambulldog -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 3:31 a.m.
    • Cube Action vs. MCG RO
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 3:39 a.m.
      • Cube Action vs. MCG RO
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 2:20 p.m.
    • Cube Action vs. MCG RO
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 11:35 a.m.
      • Cube Action vs. MCG RO
        Keene -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 2:11 p.m.
  • Cube Action vs. MCG
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:18 p.m.
    • Cube Action vs. MCG
      Keene -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:46 p.m.