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Cube action in a volatile position

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:12 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action in a volatile position (Timothy Chow)

I trust GNU 2-ply rollouts and so does everyone else I know. It probably plays better than any human and this isn't a difficult position so even JF could probably play it close to perfectly.

Anyway, let's look at the position. Does White have a take ATS? My OTB estimate is that he needs the normal 25% plus 32% of Blue's gammons less 56% of his own to take. Blue's 4-cube takepoint is a little higher than normal, 26.5% is the figure I'd use OTB. Blue has 18 hits and a lot of the non-hitters play pretty well so I'd give him 33% gammons. White can win a g too since he's got a 4.5 point board and Blue might not be able to clean up all 3 of his blots. Maybe 8% gammons for White. Adjusting for gammons raises the takepoint to around 31.5% and cube vig probably lowers this to around 26%. Does White have 26% cubeless chances in this position? If so, it's certainly not by much so this position passes the "no loose cube by the leader ATS" rule. It's also a very volatile position since the hits lose the market by a lot as does something that makes the 1 or 4 point & dance. So definitely a double in my book.

I don't think White can find 26% cubeless wins here, so D/P is my choice. The 18 hits are real bad and too many of the non-hitters play well -- D6,64,61,D5,41,D1.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action in a volatile position
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 5:00 a.m.
  • Cube action in a volatile position
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 5:11 a.m.
  • Cube action in a volatile position
    Stick -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 11:45 a.m.
    • Cube action in a volatile position
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 10:49 p.m.
      • Cube action in a volatile position
        Stick -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 10:53 p.m.
    • RHR??
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:44 p.m.
  • Cube action in a volatile position
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:12 a.m.
    • Cube action in a volatile position
      John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 5:02 a.m.
    • Cube action in a volatile position
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 3:36 a.m.
  • XG Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 5:52 a.m.
    • This doesn't look right...
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 5:08 p.m.
      • What MET used for the XG rollout? *NM*
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 5:14 p.m.
        • What MET used for the XG rollout?
          Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 8:59 p.m.
        • GNU rollout confirms
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 11:55 p.m.
        • What MET used for the XG rollout?
          eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 1:33 a.m.
  • Looking at the rgb post
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 9:18 p.m.
    • Looking at the rgb post
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 9:31 p.m.
  • 3-ply RO's in the hopper
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 12:48 p.m.
  • {3,2} RO
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:25 p.m.
  • {3,3} RO
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:28 p.m.
  • 3-ply RO commentary
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:34 p.m.
    • 3-ply RO commentary
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:48 p.m.
      • 3-ply RO commentary
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 2:06 p.m.
    • 3-ply RO commentary
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 1:43 a.m.
      • 3-ply RO commentary
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 2:01 p.m.
        • 3-ply RO commentary
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 3:48 a.m.
          • 3-ply RO commentary
            Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 5:59 p.m.
    • 3-ply RO commentary
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 6:18 a.m.