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Bearin vs acepoint anchor ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 8:45 p.m.

In Response To: Bearin vs acepoint anchor (Petter Bengtsson)

My thoughts when this play has come up has always been like this; I don't want to leave indirect shots, and I don't want to blot next roll on 55 and 64. Conclusion, 9/4 5/2. Wrong play says GNU...

For money clearing the barpoint is best because it wins more gammons than the two "safe" plays.

At DMP it's close with a small edge to 9/4 6/3 over the clearing play. The inflexible 9/4 5/2 is the wrong play here also.

Money game rollout and DMP rollout below.

gnubg	132
petter	74
Position ID: bNuCATC23U0AAA Match ID: QYkOAAAAAAAA

• petter moves 9/4 5/2

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,063)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	7/4 7/2	+0,8290
			0,8306 0,2322 0,0124 - 0,1694 0,0038 0,0001 +0,9022 +0,8290 0,0012 0,0016 0,0005 - 0,0012 0,0002 0,0007 0,0027 0,0034
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866149773 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	9/4 6/3	+0,7975 ( -0,0315)
			0,8339 0,1903 0,0089 - 0,1661 0,0052 0,0002 +0,8618 +0,7975 0,0012 0,0016 0,0004 - 0,0012 0,0003 0,0001 0,0025 0,0033
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866149773 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	9/4 5/2	+0,7661 ( -0,0628)
			0,8238 0,1828 0,0083 - 0,1762 0,0033 0,0001 +0,8353 +0,7661 0,0012 0,0016 0,0003 - 0,0012 0,0003 0,0000 0,0024 0,0031
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866149773 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score is: gnubg 0, petter 0 (match to 1 point)

gnubg	132
petter	74
Position ID: bNuCATC23U0AAA Match ID: cIkuAAAAAAAA

• petter moves 9/4 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/4 6/3	+0,6313
			0,8156 0,4440 0,0965 - 0,1844 0,0051 0,0006 +0,6313 +0,6313 0,0006 0,0046 0,0025 - 0,0006 0,0006 0,0003 0,0013 0,0013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866732331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/4 7/2	+0,6258 ( -0,0055)
			0,8129 0,4731 0,1160 - 0,1871 0,0056 0,0004 +0,6258 +0,6258 0,0006 0,0046 0,0028 - 0,0006 0,0008 0,0002 0,0013 0,0013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866732331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	9/4 5/2	+0,6151 ( -0,0162)
			0,8075 0,4196 0,0807 - 0,1925 0,0047 0,0001 +0,6151 +0,6151 0,0012 0,0092 0,0047 - 0,0012 0,0013 0,0000 0,0024 0,0024
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866651078 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Bearin vs acepoint anchor
  Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 17 August 2009, at 11:10 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
    neilkaz -- Monday, 17 August 2009, at 11:13 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 11:31 a.m.
  • Anyone else...
    Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 6:56 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
    Keene -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
    Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 7:13 p.m.
    • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
      Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 7:13 p.m.
    • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
      Keene -- Tuesday, 18 August 2009, at 9:39 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 4:31 p.m.
  • Bearin vs acepoint anchor ROLLOUTS
    Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 8:45 p.m.