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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout Results
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Rollout Results (Toppace)
Date: Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 3:35 a.m.
You ask "how shall I think in situations like this one?" My advice would be to remember the takepoint formula: To take you need 25% plus/minus half of the opponent's net g's plus/minus 100% of the opponents net bg's. This gives you the g & bg adjusted takepoint if you just take and never redouble. You then need to adjust this figure downward to account for redoubling vig.
Ex. Oppt win 20% net g's and 2% net bg's. Your takepoint would then be 25% + 10% + 2% = 37%. Recube vig is usually worth roughly 70% of the product of this figure and the oppt's 4-cube takepoint (which is 25%). That's around 6.8% in this example so you should take if you think your CUBELESS winning chances are =/> 30.2%. Frequently your cubeless win rate estimate will be wrong but do your best and learn from your mistakes.
Estimating gammons is also difficult and frequently my estimates are off but I tend to learn from my previous misevaluations. Remember also that the bots win 37% singles and 13% gammons from the starting position and that's when they're only on roll half the time. Remember these starting position stats the next time you're being doulbed in a gammonish position. The oppt's winning and gammon chances are usually quite a bit higher than 37%/13% so you'll need to adjust your takepoint accordingly.
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