[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Re: positions

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Monday, 27 November 2006, at 12:44 p.m.

In Response To: positions (Iancho Hristov)

With no hitting now or in future, Blue trails by 11 pips after the roll. He would be about 1 pip short of a racing take, so I estimate he loses 81-82%.

If Blue hits, 13/10 is safest, leaving 15 killing return shots. I estimate about 40% gammons if White hits, so those 15 losses are worth about 22 losses. (gammon price is only slightly higher than for money). On the 21 misses by White, she still probably wins 25%, so I'll call that another 5 losses. Altogether , Blue loses (22 + 5)/36 if he hits, so thats 75% losses. This is better than never hitting.

I know there are a lot of scenarios I've glossed over, such as later hits, but that's the best estimate I can come up with. Blue should hit, playing 18/13*/10.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.