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BGonline.org Forums
A 3 away cube?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: A 3 away cube? (Neil Robins)
Date: Sunday, 23 August 2009, at 4:11 p.m.
Can the trailer take this position ATS? If White takes and automatically redoubles on his next shake, his takepoint is around 32% less 100% of his small gammon chances. Giving him 5% gammons lowers the auto-rewhip takepoint to 27%. If White only redoubles when he should, he can probably take with 24-25% cubeless chances. That's normally the case but there was a position posted on the messageboard a few days ago ATS where the trailer's recube vig was very minimal. If that was also true in this position, then White would need real close to 27% cublesss chances to take. I think cube ownership will be worth more to the trailer in this position than the other one, so I'll stick with a 24-25% cubeless takepoint for the trailer in this position.
Does White win it this often? 10 rolls PoH leaving him in real bad shape. 10 more hit on the mid but these aren't as bad since he might be able to make a 2nd anchor in Blue's board. It might not be the best timed dual anchor game ever but White will certainly welcome a 4 from the bar! White might be forced to abandon one of the anchors in order to keep his board intact but it won't be the end of the world if that should happen. OTOH, Blue's position is pretty far advanced and he could be forced to give an early shot bearing in from the mid and 10-points. The other 16 rolls leave White with a playable 3-point game with some containment chances, some racing chances, and some hitting from the 22-point chances. My guesstimate is that White has right around 25% cubeless chances making the take/pass decision a very close one. I'd lean towards taking since I think Blue's position might not be very easy to play correctly.
Should Blue double? It looks real close but I think not. I'd wait and see what develops. This is not a now or never decision and I think the ability to double the oppt in or out later gives the leader more than enough extra wins (over what he would get by doubling now) to make it the correct choice. Every roll's a cube decision and I think he's a little better off waiting. Doubling now and probably getting recubed in the near future takes all the value from the leader's gammons and allows the trailer to go all out for the win. Also,an undoubled gammon is very valuable to the leader since it takes him to Crawford. ND/T looks right to me.
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