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eXtreme Gammon question

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:31 p.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon question (Timothy Chow)

>"The confidence level answers the question, "If I declare the higher-scoring play to be the better play, what percentage of the time will I be correct?" "

Not correct. It depends on the distribution of problems fed into it. For example supose you are only giving it problems in which you are pretty sure that play A is much better than play B. The higher scoring play will be correct more than what the confidence level says.

>"Now, in practice, the two standard deviations might be close enough to each other that you can just pretend they're equal to each other (and therefore equal to the j.s.d. value)"

No. Suppose two plays are not exactly equal. As the rollout progresses the two individual deviations get smaller but the JSD gets larger and larger.

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