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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout: A problem most intermediates get wrong
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: A problem most intermediates get wrong (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:41 p.m.
You can see rollout results if you visit the thread in rec.games.backgammon that I linked to in my original article.
I got this problem wrong when I first saw it (I tried 24/23 10/8) but I claim that rollouts aren't needed to convince yourself of the right answer. Those checkers back on the 24-point are far more troublesome for you than the outfield blot, and something must be done about them now. Splitting is bold, but when you have more checkers back and a stronger board, boldness is called for. Splitting 24/23 just doesn't cut it because the 23-point is not much better than the 24-point; the 22-point is at the edge of the prime and is much better for anchoring or for hopping out. Thus 24/22 is mandatory. As for the ace, 24/23 makes some of White's attacking rolls more deadly while failing to provide any compensating benefit, so 24/22 10/9 must be the right play.
My error when looking at the position the first time was that I didn't even consider 24/22 10/9. I only considered 24/23 10/8 and 13/10, and after rejecting 13/10 as clearly bad, I didn't look further. (In fact rollouts suggest that 24/23 10/8 is even worse than 13/10!)
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