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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 2 May 2007, at 11:59 p.m.

In Response To: More odd cube action (Stick)

This little fucker takes foreeeeeeeever to rollout. Anyway, I doubled here and Snowie beavered. Snowie 3 ply thinks I only win 54% of the games from here, the rollout shows me much better off @ 65%. I agree it's a huge ND, no real market losers, but playing against Snowie 1 ply I thought I'd give it a whirl the way I would against a weaker player. I've played this a few times and never had a problem winning.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
21
174
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
RolloutMoney equity:0.157
0.0% 0.0% 65.3% 34.7% 9.7% 5.2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.157 ±0.027,
- live cube no redouble: 0.472 ±0.038,
- live cube redouble take: 0.121 ±0.064.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1196 games (equiv. 6579 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0.550 at 16 pts,
random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.No redouble 0.404
2.Redouble, take 0.058(-0.346)
3.Redouble, pass 1.000(+0.596)
Proper cube action: 37%
Live cube
1.No redouble 0.472
2.Redouble, take 0.121(-0.352)
3.Redouble, pass 1.000(+0.528)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take40%

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