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eXtreme Gammon question

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 11:48 a.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon question (Bob Koca)

Bob,

Thanks for a lucid explanation. What backgammon players really want to know is "how confident can I be that this play is worse than the top play in the rollout".

Using your example of A - B is N(.08, .047), and googling around, I get a value of 95.56%.

Is this correct? Would this be a useful figure to report in the rollout stats?

For example, to indicate how confident you are that play 2 is worse than play 1, it might report:

2 (95.56%) R 13/8 13/7* -0.069 ( -0.080)

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