[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Its not a 4 or 1

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:49 p.m.

In Response To: Its not a 4 or 1 (Keene)

But if GNU thinks the bananas play is right, and will make it soon anyway, then surely that is an indicator that it is in fact right?

I don't understand this at all. Why would it give any credence to the bananas play being right?

You would have a similar problem if GNU had a bias for not hitting and the not hitting play was right on this roll but then correct to hit on subsequent rolls.

I will do a 4/4 rollout on the core plays for this.

Well I guess you are lucky that this position rolls out fast. I doubt you gain much over a 2/2 RO though.

I find it interesting that there is most commonly a 'no hit' behind most answers so far. I have some suspicions that adding or taking away a white checker here will change the plays dramatically.

If you take away a checker you are in worse shape and need to pick up a second checker quickly. Here you are a substantial favorite whether you play safe or hit. Even if you completely miss the second checker you still win somewhere around 40-45% depending on where White's remaining checkers end up.

And for the record, I hit this one, 4/1*,19/14. I also wonder about how the score influences the play too - by that I mean that at 0-0 to 7/9/11/11++, you probably dont mind too much about losing just a single, so are more willing to play it out as a race.

At DMP, and scores where I don't care about getting gammoned at all, I think hitting is right, but not by that much.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.