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Probability Problem

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 7:57 p.m.

In Response To: Probability Problem (poseidon)

The counterintuitive nature of the problem has to do with the fact that it's about conditional probabilities. The human mind does a poor job of grasping them. Some on this thread have mentioned Monty Hall... the late great mathematician Paul Erdos himself refused to believe the correct solution of the Monty Hall problem at first.

Messages In This Thread

• Probability Problem
  poseidon -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 1:26 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    misja -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 1:42 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Stick -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 3:46 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 3:49 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:19 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Jason Lee -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 7:54 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:37 p.m.
      • Probability Problem
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:56 p.m.
        • Probability Problem
          Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:07 p.m.
          • Probability Problem
            Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 7:42 p.m.
            • Probability Problem
              Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 8:09 p.m.
              • Probability Problem
                joe freedman -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 8:26 p.m.
                • Probability Problem
                  poseidon -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 8:37 p.m.
                • Probability Problem
                  Jason Lee -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 8:47 p.m.
              • Probability Problem
                Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 1:58 a.m.
                • Probability Problem
                  Paul Vianna -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 2:11 a.m.
                  • Probability Problem
                    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 4:06 p.m.
            • monte hall called this
              garyo -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 7:51 a.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:16 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:03 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
      • Probability Problem
        poseidon -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:18 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    joe freedman -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:35 p.m.
    • Probability Problem
      joe freedman -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Jason Lee -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 7:57 p.m.
  • Probability Problem
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 2:13 a.m.
    • Probability Problem
      poseidon -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 10:29 a.m.