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INTERPRETING SNOWIE ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Keene
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 5:19 a.m.

In Response To: INTERPRETING SNOWIE ROLLOUTS (Ray Kershaw)

By my understanding of this, you can be 95% confident that play A is somewhere between 0.210 and 0.250 in equity, and play B is somewhere between 0.180 and 0.220 in equity.

So, right now, your plays are close, and if you had to make a judgement call, you prefer play A over play B, as it has the potential to be better than play B.

What you want to achieve is a result that sets the upper bound (of 1.96 deviations minimum, currently 0.020) of one play to be less than the lower bound (of 1.96 deviations minimum, currently 0.020) of your other play. When you have that scenario, then you are going to be 95% confident that you have one play better than the other.

Make sense? Probably not. This is what I got from the discussion in the other thread about JSD's, GNU, and confidence intervals.

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