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INTERPRETING SNOWIE ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 10:06 a.m.

In Response To: INTERPRETING SNOWIE ROLLOUTS (Ray Kershaw)

I don't have Snowie, but here is how I interpret the results.

A 95% confidence interval corresponds to roughly 2 standard deviations (SDs). So Snowie's rollout of each play has an SD of 0.01. You can compute the joint standard deviation (JSD) of the two plays using the following formula:

JSD = sqrt( SD1^2 + SD2^2 )

Plugging in 0.01 for each SD, you get

JSD = sqrt( 0.01^2 + 0.01^2 ) = 0.014

The difference in the rollout estimates of the two plays is

(+0.230) - (+0.200) = 0.030

So the plays are a little over 2 JSDs apart. Two JSDs corresponds to a 97.5% probability that the plays are ordered correctly -- that is, doing an infinite number of trials won't change the result.

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