BGonline.org Forums

eXtreme Gammon question

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 5:09 p.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon question (MaX)

"Suppose you rollout 100 moves until you have 99% confidence that play1 is better than play2, play3, .... play100 (individually). I think the user would be surprised to see that the confidence of play1 being better than all the others is .99^99 = 0.37 ... "

It is not correct to multiply becuase of lack of independence. Suppose that play 2 is actually better than play 1. This is an indication that the true value of play 1 is lower thatn the rolled out value and taking this into account we no longer think that the other plays are still 99%.

Messages In This Thread

• eXtreme Gammon question
  Michael Depreli -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 12:32 p.m.
  • eXtreme Gammon question
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 12:35 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon question
      Michael Depreli -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 12:39 p.m.
      • eXtreme Gammon question
        Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 4:30 p.m.
        • eXtreme Gammon question
          Keene -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:13 p.m.
          • eXtreme Gammon question
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:27 p.m.
            • eXtreme Gammon question
              Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:43 p.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 6:38 p.m.
                • eXtreme Gammon question
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:09 p.m.
                  • eXtreme Gammon question
                    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:35 p.m.
                    • eXtreme Gammon question
                      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 11:35 p.m.
                  • eXtreme Gammon question
                    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
          • eXtreme Gammon question
            Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:40 p.m.
          • eXtreme Gammon question
            Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 6:52 p.m.
            • eXtreme Gammon question
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:16 p.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 12:11 a.m.
            • eXtreme Gammon question
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:31 p.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:48 p.m.
                • eXtreme Gammon question
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:58 p.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 11:59 p.m.
                • eXtreme Gammon question
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:08 a.m.
                  • eXtreme Gammon question
                    Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 9:44 a.m.
                    • eXtreme Gammon question
                      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 11:04 a.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 1:06 p.m.
                        • eXtreme Gammon question
                          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:32 p.m.
                    • eXtreme Gammon question
                      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 5:46 p.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:08 p.m.
                        • eXtreme Gammon question
                          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:22 a.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:22 a.m.
                  • eXtreme Gammon question
                    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 11:48 a.m.
                    • eXtreme Gammon question
                      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 12:07 p.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Tom Keith -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 2:44 p.m.
                        • eXtreme Gammon question
                          MaX -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 3:33 p.m.
                          • eXtreme Gammon question
                            Tom Keith -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:13 p.m.
                            • eXtreme Gammon question
                              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 5:57 p.m.
                            • eXtreme Gammon question
                              MaX -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:38 a.m.
                              • eXtreme Gammon question
                                Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
                        • eXtreme Gammon question
                          Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
                          • eXtreme Gammon question
                            MaX -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:51 a.m.
                • eXtreme Gammon question
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 4:11 a.m.
            • eXtreme Gammon question
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                MaX -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 7:34 a.m.
            • eXtreme Gammon question
              Tom Keith -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 1:16 a.m.
              • eXtreme Gammon question
                Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:30 a.m.
                • eXtreme Gammon question
                  Tom Keith -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:55 p.m.
                  • eXtreme Gammon question
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 7:51 p.m.
                    • eXtreme Gammon question
                      Tom Keith -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 8:16 p.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:36 p.m.
                      • eXtreme Gammon question
                        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 1:55 a.m.
        • Confidence level calculation?
          playBunny -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 8:29 p.m.
          • Confidence level calculation?
            playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 4:33 p.m.