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eXtreme Gammon question

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon question (Maik Stiebler)

I think you are right that what the bots do is equivalent to Bayesian inference with a uniform prior.

Well, gnubg doesn't talk in terms of confidence per se. Presumably, it's just reporting the difference between the sample means, in units of the sample j.s.d.

The bots that talk about confidence might be doing Bayesian inference, but now that I think about it, they could very well just be computing (one-dimensional) Gaussian tail probabilities. That would not be the smartest thing to do in my opinion, but it's easy to believe that it's what they do.

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