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eXtreme Gammon question

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:22 a.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon question (Timothy Chow)

I may have failed to address one of the main points of your posting.

So, are you saying that this:

We end up with a probability distribution over the unit square (the two axes are the win percentages of the two plays) and we're at 95% confidence if 95% of the volume under the surface lies on one side of the plane y = x.

is not equivalent to that:

they could very well just be computing (one-dimensional) Gaussian tail probabilities.

?

Echoing Tom Keith's comment, under the convenient assumption that both posteriors are normally distributed and independent and that the jsd for the second approach is computed correctly (and that the effect from cutting off at the boundaries of the unit square is negligible, and maybe some more assumptions that I can't think of right now :-) ), I don't see why those two approaches would not be equivalent. But I have to admit that my statistical knowledge is out of its comfort zone here.

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