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OTB thoughts

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 7:58 p.m.

In Response To: Another routine boring 3 pt match holding game cube (neilkaz)

I am 19 pips up and White with some wastage

White likely will have an open 3 or 4 pt when I get hit.

White perhaps can cause me a bit of trouble with the straggler but that isn't very likely since it usually has to move away for timing and since I'd be happy to hit it if I can maintain a blotless 4 pt board.

White has no mid point, however, White is not usually able to keep the mid point for too long in this type of holding game with this pip difference.

I have no spare on the 8 pt and this can be awkward should I not roll something to move from the mid point safely. However, I can handle at least 1 and often two poor rolls without real disaster.

White's TP is 25% (24.9 to be exact) and I think White will take this, perhaps based on my stripped 8 pt.

I lose my market by lots if I am able to shoot a big dub soon.

OTB I felt that I was between 73 and 73.5% and therefore this just has to be a good double vs a strong opp. D/T it went and my 2nd roll was 55 winning easily.

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