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ROLLOUT

Posted By: Paul Vianna
Date: Thursday, 3 September 2009, at 12:09 a.m.

In Response To: UK Masters Cube Action (Paul Vianna)

I posted this position because I was at first surprised that Gnu at 2-ply dinged Hurst's decision to hold the cube. Evidently the factors mentioned by Stick and others make this a sound cube.

Incidentally, on the previous roll Plenz had played a 41 roll as 6/1, which Gnu deems a big mistake instead of the right play 8/4 8/7. This highlights the relative lack of strength of the 4-prime here.

I suspect this would be an easy double to miss for many players in the heat of battle.

The score (after 0 games) is: John_Hurst 0, Christian_Plenz 0 (match to 13 points)

Move number 14: John_Hurst on roll, cube decision?

John_Hurst	124
Christian_Plenz	139
Position ID: GduGASRmPoMBAw Match ID: MAGgAQAAAAAA

• John_Hurst moves 6/4 6/2

Alert: missed double ( -0.117)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.506	(Money: +0.495)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.788
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.212
3.	No double	+0.671	-0.117
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.642 0.292 0.011 - 0.358 0.089 0.004 +0.506 +0.671 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.014 Player Christian_Plenz owns 2-cube 0.648 0.298 0.012 - 0.352 0.086 0.004 +1.076 +0.788 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.010 0.015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868119844 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.1 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• UK Masters Cube Action
  Paul Vianna -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 1:31 a.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 4:43 a.m.
    • UK Masters Cube Action
      Mislav Radica -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 9:35 a.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    Stick -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 11:10 a.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 5:38 p.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    David -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 6:41 p.m.
  • ROLLOUT
    Paul Vianna -- Thursday, 3 September 2009, at 12:09 a.m.
  • UK Masters Cube Action
    Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 3 September 2009, at 5:01 a.m.