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Answer to followup quiz (rollout)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 3 September 2009, at 10:13 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout, plus a followup quiz! (Timothy Chow)

The answer, as Matt correctly said, is #2. The important lesson I learned is that even the 11-pt is a critically important asset when defending against a blitz. This is not something I picked up from any of the books I've read.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube action?

Chow	164
Motif	146
Position Id: 4HPMAVCM28EBIg Match Id: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.511
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.773
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.227
3.	No double	+0.734	-0.039
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.660 0.258 0.009 - 0.340 0.073 0.003 +0.511 +0.734 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.012 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.662 0.266 0.010 - 0.338 0.073 0.003 +1.049 +0.773 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.014
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868207275 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube action?

Chow	168
Motif	143
Position Id: 4HPwAVAa18QBIg Match Id: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.572
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.972
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.028
3.	No double	+0.756	-0.216
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.659 0.318 0.014 - 0.341 0.075 0.003 +0.572 +0.756 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.010 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.669 0.351 0.011 - 0.331 0.075 0.003 +1.245 +0.972 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868144524 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube action?

Chow	142
Motif	143
Position Id: wueYA0Aa18QBIg Match Id: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.501
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.772
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.228
3.	No double	+0.678	-0.094
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.632 0.321 0.009 - 0.368 0.087 0.005 +0.501 +0.678 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.009 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.639 0.341 0.009 - 0.361 0.088 0.006 +1.069 +0.772 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867930494 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Blitz cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 31 August 2009, at 5:18 p.m.
  • Blitz cube action
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 31 August 2009, at 6:32 p.m.
  • Blitz cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 1 September 2009, at 4:34 a.m.
  • Blitz cube action
    Keene -- Tuesday, 1 September 2009, at 2:15 p.m.
  • Blitz cube action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 September 2009, at 10:07 p.m.
  • Rollout, plus a followup quiz!
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 1:40 a.m.
    • Rollout, plus a followup quiz!
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 2 September 2009, at 4:04 a.m.
    • Answer to followup quiz (rollout)
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 September 2009, at 10:13 p.m.