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OTB and rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 6 September 2009, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Rd 4...To hit or not ? (neilkaz)

OTB I used about 90 seconds of my 18 minutes RT here and it seemed to me that I had about equal chances to win when he missed with either play. I have 21 safe numbers if I hit and he dances. I assumed if he misses if I don't hit he rolls his average 9.

I ended up hitting because sometimes when I get hit after he dances I've rolled a double and have enough off to still be in the game and when I don't hit, I know his average miss is fractionally greater than 9 pips (not sure how much and wasn't going to spend the time to figure) ..also I want to guard against the varience of his large doubles when I don't hit.

I hit, he danced, I reblotted with 54, he hit with nickels and I danced and passed. However, good dice later gave soon gave me a big lead and a win.

The score (after 0 games) is: Al Hodis 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: neilkaz to play 16

Al Hodis	64
neilkaz	50
Position ID: 7+wGAAH3bQMEAA Match ID: QYk4AQAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/6*	+0.2711
			0.6871 0.0096 0.0001 - 0.3129 0.0023 0.0000 +0.3822 +0.2711 0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864270348 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/7 2/1	+0.2177 ( -0.0534)
			0.6603 0.0004 0.0000 - 0.3397 0.0023 0.0000 +0.3185 +0.2177 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864270348 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/7 5/4	+0.2120 ( -0.0591)
			0.6567 0.0004 0.0000 - 0.3433 0.0022 0.0000 +0.3115 +0.2120 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864270348 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	13/7 4/3	+0.1821 ( -0.0890)
			0.6461 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.3539 0.0028 0.0000
	5	2	13/7 3/2	+0.1516 ( -0.1195)
			0.6328 0.0004 0.0000 - 0.3672 0.0036 0.0000

Messages In This Thread

• Rd 4...To hit or not ?
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 September 2009, at 2:05 a.m.
  • Rd 4...To hit or not ?
    David -- Sunday, 6 September 2009, at 2:48 a.m.
    • Rd 4...To hit or not ?
      John Little -- Sunday, 6 September 2009, at 6:37 a.m.
  • OTB and rollout
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 September 2009, at 3:03 p.m.