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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Re: GNU-bg rollout
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Re: GNU-bg rollout (Stick)
Date: Friday, 4 May 2007, at 7:00 p.m.
A money game rollout would be nice, in order to get money game equities. But I don't have a problem with Chuck's rollout because it's at 11-away 13-away. Redoubles to 4 aren't at all likely, in my view, to be much different from money play.
However, after seeing Chuck's rollout I still think Blue's best chance is to try to preserve a 4- or 3-point board, hopefully including the 4 point.
I'm willing to believe that the 3rd best 6/3 24/23 that blocks 2-2 and 3-3 for a roll is better than I thought. However, I'd be willing to prop that play, the 5th best 6/4 2/1* 24/23, and the 6th best 6/4 2/1*(2) against the 1st, 2nd and 4th best plays in Chuck's rollout. I do not believe GNUBG 2-ply plays optimally after those kamikaze plays 6/5 4/1* and 24/23 6/5 4/3 2/1* and the semi-kamikaze 6/3 4/3.
Rollouts-to-disprove-the-rollout coming. They will be of:
Blue plays 6/5 4/1*, White rolls 6-4.
Blue plays 6/5 4/1*, White rolls 6-5.
Blue plays 6/5 4/1*, White rolls 6-1.
Blue plays 6/5 4/1*, White rolls 4-1.
Blue plays 6/5 4/1*, White rolls 3-1.
Blue plays 6/3 4/3, White rolls 6-3.
Of these, the only one I've got a rollout started for is the first. But when it is finished I think it will show that Gnubg 2-ply's 6-4 play bar/21*/15 is about a 0.080 blunder and that the nonhitting bar/15 wins more games and more gammons. And Gnubg 2-ply hits (once, or twice if possible) with all of these rolls.
It's always fun to use rollouts to disprove rollouts ;)
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