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I missed a couple of deuce shots so Perry recubed for match

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 12:55 a.m.

In Response To: I missed a couple of deuce shots so Perry recubed for match (Stein Kulseth)

I don't follow this reasoning. Perry will not be leaving shots from the 6 pt except possibly on 4-3. Hitting on the 6 yields repeaters, which would seem to make up for the extra shot or two. By my calculation, Neil wins 20.6% on the initial exchange -- it wouldn't seem that hard to get up to 22% with various residual possibilities (e.g., 2-1 followed by 2-1; loss of race; hit on 6 pt followed by two fans, etc.)

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