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Bonus Q

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 2:08 a.m.

In Response To: Bonus Q (Keene)

Here are my figures:

1) I throw an ace, but not 11 (10/36)
2) He fans (27/36)
3) I roll two numbers 3 or bigger, but not a set (12/36)
4) He hits (11/36)
5) He wins from there (~45%).

That works out to about .85%.

Or, if I start off with a set:

1) I roll a set bigger than 2s (4/36)
2) He fans (20/36)
3) I roll a non-ace, non-set (20/36)
4) He hits (11/36)
5) He wins (~20%).

That works out to ~.21%.

So I should be about 99% to win, assuming the other variations are infinitesimal.

But GNU has it at 98.3%. Did I go wrong somewhere?

The score (after 0 games) is: White 8, Blue 5 (match to 9 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 8: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	132
Blue	24
Position ID: NnfAAWDvNgAAAA Match ID: cAkgAYAAKAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -1.0190)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+1.9922	(Money: +1.9413)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+2.0190
2.	Double, take	+5.0896	+3.0707
3.	Double, pass	+1.0000	-1.0190
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (24.9%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.9838 0.9532 0.0205 - 0.0162 0.0000 0.0000 +1.9922 +2.0190 Standard error 0.0006 0.0009 0.0007 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0017 0.0014 Player White owns 2-cube 0.9831 0.9524 0.1077 - 0.0169 0.0000 0.0000 +5.0896 +5.0896 Standard error 0.0005 0.0009 0.0056 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0037
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864791741 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison
  Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 2:08 a.m.
  • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 4:07 a.m.
  • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison -- OTB
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 12:24 p.m.
  • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 3:47 p.m.
    • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison
      Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 9:35 p.m.
  • Most Discussed Checker Play Decision I Saw in Madison RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 5:22 p.m.
  • Bonus Q
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 5:25 p.m.
    • Bonus Q
      Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 5:28 p.m.
    • Bonus Q
      jdg -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 6:32 p.m.
    • Bonus Q
      Keene -- Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 8:16 p.m.
      • Bonus Q
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 2:08 a.m.
        • Bonus Q
          Bill Riles -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 2:24 a.m.
          • Bonus Q
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 3:59 a.m.
        • Bonus Q
          Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 3:10 a.m.
          • Bonus Q
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 4:25 a.m.
            • Bonus Q
              Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 4:46 a.m.
              • Bonus Q
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 4:51 a.m.
        • Bonus Q
          Joe Russell -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 12:46 p.m.
          • Bonus Q
            Joe Russell -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 12:52 p.m.
          • Weekend bad beat story time
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 6:32 p.m.
            • Weekend bad beat story time
              Joe Russell -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 9:27 p.m.
    • Bonus Q
      Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 4:08 a.m.
    • Bonus Q
      Michael Petch -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 5:18 a.m.