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OTB and rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: Madison Semis..critical recube decision (neilkaz)

Something made me recube this... I think that I was seduced by the gammon killing aspects in case I simply get blown away. Tak has passed what I thought was a .8 take last game, but I certainly cannot expect him to pass this and let me have the lead. I should wait simply bcuz he cannot pass this and I really don't have much of an immediate market losing threat.

I cubed.. he took, and then I rolled 13 and he butched his 42 by hitting loose with the 4. .. Hmm..one wonders if he'd have then taken..although that is still a take, it is what I should'a waited for.

The score (after 0 games) is: Tak 5, neilkaz 4 (match to 9 points)

Move number 6: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Tak 129, neilkaz 148
Position ID: 2W7AATCw2+ADQA Match ID: UQkgAVAAIAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0312)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.0221	(Money: -0.0759)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.3130
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.6870
3.	Double, take	+0.2818	-0.0312
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (4.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.5342 0.1248 0.0116 - 0.4658 0.2634 0.0172 -0.0221 +0.3130 Standard error 0.0023 0.0019 0.0014 - 0.0023 0.0060 0.0037 0.0070 0.0116 Player Tak owns 4-cube 0.5350 0.1192 0.0152 - 0.4650 0.2987 0.0179 +0.2818 +0.2818 Standard error 0.0024 0.0023 0.0019 - 0.0024 0.0085 0.0035 0.0127 0.0127
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1038 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865062180 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Madison Semis..critical recube decision
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 3:35 a.m.
  • Madison Semis..critical recube decision
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 4:02 a.m.
  • Madison Semis..critical recube decision
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 5:30 a.m.
  • Madison Semis..critical recube decision
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Madison Semis..critical recube decision
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 6:03 p.m.
  • OTB and rollout
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 10 September 2009, at 10:32 p.m.
    • Rollout had I cubed next roll when I actually had something
      neilkaz -- Friday, 11 September 2009, at 3:41 a.m.