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Dropping Takes Vs. A Weaker Player

Posted By: Jake Jacobs
Date: Friday, 11 September 2009, at 12:12 a.m.

In Response To: Dropping Takes Vs. A Weaker Player (Jake Jacobs)

And someone did.

First: Yes, modifying your cube handling depending upon the strength of the opposition is demonstrably correct.

Second: As a general rule you are more likely to do it in very simple positions, and less likely in complex ones, because your skill advantage in complex positions trumps your gain from dropping.

An easy example proving the first proposition and inferentially the second is this one. Suppose the score is 3-away, 3-away and your opponent redoubles on the last shake with one remaining checker on his 6pt. For simplicity let's agree that your ME against an equal-strength opponent if you drop is exactly 25%. If you are playing an ESO it's a coin flip: take if you have to catch a plane, drop otherwise. But if you are playing a Giant, a Sander or Mochy, or Falafel, you aren't going to win 25% of the time if you have to play from 3-away, Crawford, so the take is clear. And if you are playing a hopeless fish, you rate to win more than 25%, so why let their dice decide?

A (much, much) fuller explanation may be found in Can A Fish Taste Twice As Good?

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