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Reply to David

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Sunday, 13 September 2009, at 1:58 a.m.

In Response To: Reply to David (toppace)

The post was intended for everyone except Stick. He knows everything about about the first two moves already. It sounds like my point wasn't clear, so I'll try to make it again. I've got brief rollouts for most 2nd roll moves not listed on Stick's site that I can share. I am happy to share them. I just don't want to do a lot of extra work posting things that someone could discover for themselves by pushing the four ply button. So, I am asking anyone interested in my rollouts to try a 4 ply analysis first and then ask me for my rollouts if the choice still isn't clear.

So, let's say you want to know how to play 41S-44. It isn't on Stick's site. You go to GNU and do a 2 ply analysis. 44K (Kill 24-16*, 6-2*(2)) is best with D (Down 24-16*, 13-9(2)) way behind in second place. You try both moves at 4 ply just to be sure and find that K is best by almost .0800. You don't need my rollout, you have your answer already. K is best by a lot. You don't need to ask me to post anything.

Then let's imagine that you want to know how to play 64R-21. You hear Stick saying that X (Hit and split 24-23, 13-11*) is obvious, but you aren't convinced that he knows it all. The rollout isn't posted on Stick's site. You think that D (Down 13-11*, 11-10) may be better. Two ply prefers X. Four ply prefers X by less than .0300. Since this is still close, you aren't convinced, and you ask me for my rollout. I post it (below) proving Stick right again. This is a worthwhile use of my time since the 4 ply is so close that even one of the top three postwhores on this site might have doubts about what is right. I'm happy to post my rollout for a question like this.

1. Rollout 24/23 13/11* Eq.: +0.0686

0.5136 0.1384 0.0061 - 0.4864 0.1225 0.0054 CL +0.0438 CF +0.0686

[0.0016 0.0018 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0016 0.0003 CL 0.0042 CF 0.0118]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858972224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 13/11*/10 Eq.: +0.0532 ( -0.0154)

0.5083 0.1394 0.0068 - 0.4917 0.1253 0.0058 CL +0.0319 CF +0.0532

[0.0018 0.0018 0.0004 - 0.0018 0.0017 0.0007 CL 0.0045 CF 0.0117]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858972224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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