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DMP 51

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 16 September 2009, at 12:20 p.m.

In Response To: DMP 51 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

It looks like it makes little difference unless a six is rolled or 1-1 or 1-2. Obviously the 1-1 and 1-2 are very bad for running and far offset any small racing gains that may be gained in non-contact games, since the racing chances are so small, so there must be a reasonable gain on the 6's for it to be right to run.

Shots running/staying on the sixes:

6-1(2, call it 6 including later hits)/(17, call it 19 for later hits and racing chances); 6-2(11, call it 14 for later hits)/(17, call it 19 as with 6-1); 6-3(13, call it 16 with later shots/(17, call it 19) ; same for 6-4; 6-5(20(with a later shot at least 40% of misses= 23)/(0, with a later shot most of the time so call this 14, including racing); 6-6 (20,call it 22)/0 (call it 13). So on the sixes it sums to (75*2)+22=172 for running, (90*2)+13 - 193 for staying. No need to look at the aces, it is clear, stay.

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