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OTB thoughts & RO

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 17 September 2009, at 1:00 a.m.

In Response To: DMP 51 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

OTB thoughts:

1) Looks close.

2) Let's look at the 6s...let's say I go and keep a running count. 61 leaves me 2 instead of 17, -15. 62 leaves 11 instead of 17, -21. 63 leaves 13 instead of 17, -25. 64 leaves 13 instead of 17, -29. 65 leaves 20 instead of 0, -9. 66 leaves 20 instead of 0, +11. So 11 shots now in favor of running. But I give up some vig on 11 and 21 and also on later shots if he throws 65 or 66 after I stay. I'm not sure how to account for that vig. Still looks close. If I don't go this time, I will have to go next time since I am not wrecking my board and would rather not bury a spare deep. Argues for running now.

3) I think I remember seeing a position almost exactly like this one rolled out before, and I think I remember seeing that splitting was marginally correct. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's what I remember. Which play is harder to play against? It probably doesn't make much difference, but probably splitting.

So, I split. My usually decent memory failed me here. Splitting wins about 2% less games. Burying the spare is not critical and I get more shots next roll.

Bill threw 64, I threw 65 and won the match.

RO:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 51

White	61
Blue	90
Position ID: 95aDAQDdtgUAAw Match ID: VYmmAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/15 2/1

Alert: bad move ( -0.042)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	7/1	-0.2719
			0.3641 0.0387 0.0004 - 0.6359 0.0422 0.0000 -0.2719 -0.2719 0.0009 0.0029 0.0002 - 0.0009 0.0035 0.0000 0.0018 0.0018
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865104136 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	20/15 2/1	-0.3140 ( -0.0422)
			0.3430 0.0620 0.0006 - 0.6570 0.1043 0.0001 -0.3140 -0.3140 0.0009 0.0035 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0051 0.0000 0.0019 0.0019
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865104136 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• DMP 51
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 16 September 2009, at 5:33 a.m.
  • DMP 51
    Max Urban -- Wednesday, 16 September 2009, at 9:20 a.m.
  • DMP 51
    Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 16 September 2009, at 12:20 p.m.
  • OTB thoughts & RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 17 September 2009, at 1:00 a.m.
    • OTB thoughts & RO
      Joe Russell -- Thursday, 17 September 2009, at 3:10 a.m.
      • OTB thoughts & RO
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 17 September 2009, at 3:34 a.m.
      • OTB thoughts & RO
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 17 September 2009, at 3:36 a.m.