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OTB..rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 2:44 p.m.

In Response To: 54S 33A dance @-3-4 cube from WSOB semis (Matt Cohn-Geier)

First of all, as we all know the position I posted has basically be known since even the pre-bot era as D/T for $$$. But at this score, there's a few reasons why it isn't even a D ! 1) Huge recube vig for the trailer, 2) Muted G value for the leader when the cube is on 4. 3) Gammicidal (ie G becomes kills..ty Danny Kleinman) recube for trailer.

The overriding factor is the huge trailer recube value. So this as I thought is a clear no D at score.

OTB what actually happened was that 51 entering was rolled..and OMG the cube still went D and then a Czech Burger King franchise pass !!

There's lots of nonsence out there in some older articles and maybe a book or two about not letting the opp who is 3 away get to Crawford, even when he's allready ahead. This nonsense fails to take into account the huge recube vig.

is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 163

7 point match

pip: 155 score: 4 is Player 1

XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:4:3:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	66.10% (G: 28.95% B: 3.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.90% (G: 7.80% B: 0.84%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.777
Double:	+1.301
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.729
Double/Take:	+0.634 (-0.095)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.271)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.018 (+0.711...+0.747)
Confidence Double:	± 0.027 (+0.608...+0.661)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 36 minutes 10 seconds

Version: 1.03, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• 54S 33A dance @-3-4 cube from WSOB semis
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 4:23 a.m.
  • 54S 33A dance @-3-4 cube from WSOB semis
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 4:27 a.m.
    • 54S 33A dance @-3-4 cube from WSOB semis
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 4:39 a.m.
    • OTB..rollout etc
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 2:44 p.m.
      • OTB..rollout etc
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 2:53 p.m.
        • OTB..rollout etc
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 3:17 p.m.
        • OTB..rollout etc
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 September 2009, at 5:02 p.m.
          • OTB..rollout etc
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 21 September 2009, at 6:47 p.m.
            • Kit's 5 point match article
              jdg -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 1:57 p.m.
              • Kit's 5 point match article
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 7:38 p.m.
      • OTB..rollout etc
        Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 20 September 2009, at 3:56 p.m.