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6/5 4/1* ... 4-3

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 7 May 2007, at 4:28 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: Re: GNU-bg rollout (Chuck Bower)

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 0 (match to 13 points)

Move number 6: White on roll, cube decision?

White103


3O4O2X2X3X2X3X2X ' ' ' '

1O3O2O1O1O ' ' ' ' ' ' '

Blue186

Position ID: 3QoAwDtstxsAQA Match ID: EQGgASAAAAAA

• White moves bar/21* 7/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/21*/18 +1.31018
0.843760.566620.12731-0.156240.000260.00002 +1.39242 +1.31018
0.005220.005980.00747-0.005220.000170.00001 0.01733 0.02025
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1058481698 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R bar/21* 7/4 +1.25227 ( -0.05790)
0.823090.562700.13601-0.176910.000110.00004 +1.35567 +1.25227
0.005810.006420.00797-0.005810.000950.00002 0.01921 0.02261
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1058481698 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R bar/21* 8/5 +1.22225 ( -0.08793)
0.813210.558980.13642-0.186790.000180.00003 +1.33240 +1.22225
0.006050.006960.00734-0.006050.000700.00001 0.02028 0.02402
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1058481698 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The difference would be smaller if gnubg 2-ply would refrain from hitting on with an ace on the roll after playing 7/4.

Roll2-ply playRight playErrorError
6-4:bar/21*/15bar/150.1442*2/36 =0.008011
6-5:bar/20*/14bar/140.16106*2/36 =0.008947
6-1:bar/24*/18bar/19 7/60.22610*2/36 =0.012561
4-1:bar/21*/20*bar/21* 7/60.10600*2/36 =0.005888
4-3bar/21* 7/4bar/21*/180.05790*2/36 =0.003216
0.038623

With 4-2 gnubg 2-ply plays bar/21*/19. With 5-1 gnubg 2-ply plays bar/20* 7/6.

Next up: 3-1 -- bar/24*/21* or bar/24* 7/4?

"In France, for instance, I'm told that marriage is now frequently contracted in seven-year terms where either party may move on when their term is up." -- Mitt Romney, 4 May 2007.

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