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3-away 5-away

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 5:22 a.m.

In Response To: 3-away 5-away (Matt Cohn-Geier)

White's 2-cube basic takepoint is around 29% ATS. 2-cube gammon prices are around .48 for your g's and around .73 for the trailer. Your 4-cube takepoint is 1/3 plus 1/3 of his gammons. You win say 25% gammons and he wins maybe 10%. These gammon estimates raise his 2-cube takpoint to around 34%. Recube vig lowers this to around 26.5%, I would guess. Does White have 26.5% cubeless chances here? I think so, so I'd take as White.

Should you send it over? You're a 9/4 fav to enter before he does (20/36 x 36/36 to 16/36 x 20/36) and 8 of your 20 entering numbers are real strong (64,62,54,D4,D2), four more give you a 5.5 point prime (21,41), while the other 8 leave you in pretty good (but not overwhelming)shape. Lots of big market losers here.

How about your 16 dancers? He's got 8 strong entering numbers that hit on the 18 plus the switching D1. The other eleven entering numbers don't hit you so you'll be in good shape if you can re-enter on your next shake.

Altogether it looks like you're about a 2/1 fav here so it's a pretty clear take for the trailer but it's a very volatile position so I'd send it over. You could be crushing your opponent with most of your entering numbers so now's the time to send it over. D/T.

Messages In This Thread

• 3-away 5-away
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 4:12 a.m.
  • 3-away 5-away
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 5:22 a.m.
  • 3-away 5-away
    Keene -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 2:29 p.m.
  • 3-away 5-away
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 4:01 p.m.
  • 3-away 5-away
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 8:27 a.m.
  • 3-away 5-away RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 4:26 p.m.