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Prague Finals Cube Action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: Prague Finals Cube Action (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Can White take this? He's got several ways to win: 10 of Blue's rolls don't cover, 11 (or 12 if you count D4) of those that do leave a 61 joker, in 26/36 (Blue covers) x 22/36 (White keeps his 5-prime) White has decent chances in the priming battle, plus there's the slime equity for cases where White loses his 5-prime but wins anyway or gets closed out and wins. How about gammons? G's are more valuable for the trailer ATS but it's just not a very gammonish position. Blue probably wins more but they're worth less than normal so the net effect is probably close to a wash. Whites 2-cube takepoint is around 29% but Blue's 4-cube takepoint is 1/3 so White needs around 22% cubeless chances to take ATS. Pretty sure he's got that so it's a take IMHO.

Is Blue supposed to send it over? Not sure but I think he is. Lots of mkt losing sequences on tap so I'd double.

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