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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Miller's Small Stake Poker Example
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Miller's Small Stake Poker Example (Stanley E. Richards)
Date: Tuesday, 8 May 2007, at 1:20 a.m.
According to Miller, the hero made two mistakes. First mistake was to call the raise and the second mistake was to not raise after the flop.
Preflop: Under the Gun (UTG) Anders calls with A6s. That's consistent with Miller's book's advice for low-limit loose game which he defines (roughly, I suppose) as 6-8 players seeing a flop. Ok. UTG+1 Ginger raises with AQo. Ok. Hero ("ser") calls two bets cold with his shitty Q7s. He's gotta figure he probably has the third best hand of the three players who have entered the pot, and he has no idea how many players will enter behind him and how many more bets he will have to call to see the flop. So that's Hero's first mistake. He should throw that crap away.
As it turns out, no one else raises and five players see the flop for two bets.
The flop is J75 rainbow. Presumably Anders checks and Ginger, who made the last raise preflop, bets out with her two overcards. Ok. Hero has managed to catch a weak piece of the flop. He's paired the seven and has a backdoor flush draw. He should not call Ginger's bet. He should fold or raise. If he calls, he knows what will typically happen: the three players who have yet to act on Ginger's bet will call, call, call. And it's quite likely that they'll be right to call, getting good enough odds. So that's Hero's second mistake. If he raises, it's not because he knows he's best with a pair against Ginger's overcards. It's because if he raises there's a chance that one, two or all three of the players left to act will fold. If they all fold, Hero only has to beat Ginger, not four other players.
That said, if the game was loose/passive enough to make cold-calling two bets UTG+2 with Q7s even remotely profitable, Stick's probably right that it's not too likely that raising the flop bet is going to isolate Hero vs. Ginger. And besides, Ginger could easily have a lot better hand than AQo.
This is an example (although perhaps not a particularly good one -- does Miller say Hero should raise or does he say he should raise or fold, but not call?) of a real pearl of advice that Miller's book has for newish low-limit players: it's often right to raise to isolate with a hand -- like Hero's middle pair -- that might be best, but has a poor draw, and for all the Hero knows is probably not best. It's either that -- raise -- or fold, with calling by far the worst option. If Hero had A7s instead of Q7s, raising would be a lot more appealing.
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