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4th roll: 53P-64P-64S-31?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 2 October 2009, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: 4th roll: 53P-64P-64S-31? (Rich Munitz)

1) 5pt. Always a good option to have. The 8pt doesn't work that great with the 2pt. However a few things suggest against it which is that White has 6s to anchor, 1s to hit, and his full roll to play with the builder on the 9 pt. He has made the 3pt so if he doesn't anchor or hit you are likely to be facing a better prime. You already have a 2pt board which argues for hitting. Since everything argues for hitting this is out for me.

2) X. This leaves 16 36 46 56 34 52 for 12, 35 44 (which is close to gin and might be a playon) for 15 outside shots, 45 55 (another great shot) 21 32 42 for 9 inside shots, or 24 altogether.

3) H. That leaves 16 36 46 56 34 52 for 12 again, 35 44 (again great) for 15, plus 46 and 55 (not so great) for 18 outside shots. 6s are not really duped after either play, but if you are going to get hit outside you would prefer to be hit outside after X since you will have a return anchoring roll or a shot at hitting outside with a 5, and the midpoint will last longer if you roll a 6 from the bar. Both plays seem to give you good return 3s.

I like X here.

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