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Settlements Re: An 8 Cube

Posted By: Keene
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 3:16 a.m.

In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Seth)

25/36 of the time, white loses 8 pts - so thats 5.56pts, the other 11/36 of the time white wins 8pts, thats 2.44pts, so white's fair settlement offer is +2.44-5.56 = 3.11pts he pays to blue.

Another way (same way really) to figure it out: In 36 games, white wins 11 times on a single 8cube, 88pts. In the remaining games, white loses a single (roughly, theres some slime either side of it), thats 200 pts (8 x 25), thats a difference of 112 pts in 36 games. 112/36 is 3.11pts.

This is somewhat rough, as blue will win some gammons (small number here), so you may want white to hand over some more pts (~.1), but thats a debatable number, unless you go look at how many gammons blue is actually winning when missed.

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