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Settlements Re: An 8 Cube

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 3:26 a.m.

In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Keene)

This is way, way, way too high.

25/36 of the cube is something like 5.5. If you are White and recubed from 4 to 8 and get to be on roll do you pass this?!

Let's say you are Blue holding the cube on 8. Are you seriously going to play on here? Yes, Blue has some minimal gammon chances when he throws a perfecta like 33. To counter that your 6s are atrociously bad and numbers like 54 53 43 41 are no picnic either. So your ND equity has to be <1.0 with you holding the cube. Since your opponent is holding the cube it's even less than that.

The correct way to figure it, if you had 25 winning rolls and 11 losers, would be 25 - 11 = 14. 14/36 is slightly less than half the cube (around 3). But you aren't a 25-11 dog here...you can still win the race if you throw 66 and you can win on a repeat shot which comes up pretty often.

My guess is this is closer to a wash than it is to 5.5. I'd pay something like 1 as White and would take 2 as Blue.

With Blue on roll it is definitely a large pass but probably somewhere close to 5.

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