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Settlements Re: An 8 Cube

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Seth)

Rough figuring here.

White has the cube and wins when he hits by cashing. He has 30% immediate shots. 6s by blue leaves another shot next turn (not 62, but 51 does), 66 leaves a double and there's a bit more that can go wrong later. So say 9% future shots. Perhaps another 2% race. So we're at 41%. Call it 40% for now.

So blue is a 60/40 favorite meaning fair settlement is (60-40)/100 times the cube. Or 20% of the cube, which on an 8-cube is 1.6. That is fair settlement, really a drop less since it is really 59/41, so perhaps 1.5.

My guess is that most people playing white would be happy to get out of this for 2 points, so that's what I'd expect to settle for here (unless I'm playing MCG who will be a pain in the ass and only offer 1).

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