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Some bot rollouts of -2-1C ..obtaining the ME at GG

Posted By: NJ
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 6:45 a.m.

In Response To: Some bot rollouts of -2-1C ..obtaining the ME at GG (neilkaz)

I have a question about -2 -1 that maybe one of you experts can answer. I created a MET with my own MET generator which had the gammon rate fixed at 13.77% and cube efficiency fixed at 0.67. The value I get for the trailing side at -2 -1 crawford game is 31.9%. But that's not the interesting part. The interesting part is that my MET generator gave the same number for -3 -1 post crawford.

After thinking about it for a little bit, I decided that it made sense that -2 -1 crawford should be the same as -3 -1 post crawford. Assuming that the trailing side doubles at the first opportunity at -3 -1:

Trailing side loses single/gammon/backgammon = 0% MWC

Trailing side wins single = 50% MWC

Trailing side wins gammon/backgammon = 100% MWC

So my question is: should -2 -1 crawford and -3 -1 post crawford have the same equity? It does in my MET, but maybe I am missing something. I got more confused when I looked at g11 and mec26. They have conflicting results.

g11 -2 -1 C = 31.855%

g11 -3 -1 PC = 31.770% (i.e. post crawford is worse)

mec26 -2 -1 C = 31.5%

mec26 -3 -1 PC = 31.95% (i.e. post crawford is better)

I'm wondering what you all think about this. Should -3 -1 post crawford be better, worse, or equal to -2 -1 crawford?

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