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Settlements Re: An 8 Cube

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 7:08 a.m.

In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Rich Munitz)

I wouldn't be able to do this kind of analysis OTB in a chouette, but let's see.

Does White always win when he hits? Usually, but Blue can still throw an ace or 16 from the roof and he'll have two checkers off if he throws 66. Let's say he cashes somewhere around 97% of hits.

He hits immediately with 11/36. Second roll 11-shots are 61 63 64 65 51 32 [12 numbers]. He hits about 3.5 of those 12. Up to 14.5 hits so far. 66 leaves 2 blots so give him another 0.5 hits for 15.

White cleans up and is almost gin with anything that covers the 5. What about if he doesn't make it? 54 53 43 41 55 [9 numbers] leave somewhere around 3 more shots, 1 more hit for ~16 wins in 36 games.

16/36 leaves White paying 4/36 times the cube or 32/36, less than a point. There is some fluke gammon vig if Blue throws 31 21 33 11 22, but White gets to roll in the meantime and that fluke gammon vig is offset by fluke losses from the bar.

So my new guess is this is worth around 8/9 of a point, and paying 1 is too much.

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