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Settlements Re: An 8 Cube

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 7:54 a.m.

In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Rich Munitz)

1.5 points is about what I came up with, also.

Hits are immediate winners with the cube for White, except if Blue responds with 1-6, and that's not a pass. Blue wins few gammons and White almost none, so I ignored them.

30% (first roll hits) + 30% of 40% of 70% (2nd roll hits times rolls that leave shots times first roll nonhits) + another 2% estimated for later shots and race wins = 40.4%. 60%-40% = 20% (Blue's wins - Blue's losses), and 20% of 8 = 1.6 points.

Thinking longer, probably 30% underestimates White's second roll shots (they're not all 11/36 shots), and 2% underestimates White's 3rd roll shots. But I think few players on Blue's side would take "only" 1.5 points anyway, so ....

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