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BGonline.org Forums
Settlements Re: An 8 Cube
Posted By: Seth In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Seth)
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 1:50 p.m.
Now, for a tad more context re: this interestng position, settlement offer and subsequent bet on its value.I was watching a bg money play session between 2 players that I know. In this game, there had been an auto and, so the 1st cube started at 4. Blue originally asked for 2 points and White offered 1 point. As an observer, I thought they were both out of their fuckin' minds. I knew a hit would be fatal to blue (11/36=30%).Nonetheless, I had the thought that I'd rather lose this game on principle than settle for merely 1 point.(I'd want about 3 points). Eventually, Blue settled for the 1 point. After the session, I spoke with player Blue. He stated that if White missed his blot, he still had about 11 bad subsequent rolls.I told him that I'd worry about that bridge,if it came to pass.I showed the position to another bg player(Kibbutzer) and he agreed with me that he thought a fair settlement was about 3 points, or more So,player Blue and Kibbutzer made a bet on this issue. I put position in gnu and was shocked to learn that Blue wins approx. 60% and White approx. 40%.So, I calculated that Blue wins 20% of an 8 cube= 1.6. I was shocked and left them messages re the winner of this bet. So,Matt, I'd never want to settle with you, but, your thought were right on the money with their final agreement of 1 point.And, Rich, and Daniel, you were both in the right ballpark of about 1.6. So, Rich, I'm glad we have only played bg matches sans settlements. Despite all of this analysis, OTB,I'd still ask for at least 3 points vs most bg players out there in the friendly waters. Thanks to all for their thoughts.
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